Chief Economist transition preparedness report presented to Cicero Amal, 14 May 2051:
Industry and trade
The regional industrialisation programme has been highly successful. The initial technology transfers from the EU have been disseminated across the region, all replacement of previously imported photovoltaic and transport infrastructure stocks is now carried out via domestic production, while our industrial clusters for basic inputs such as green steel, glass and building materials, as well desalinisation modules are thriving. At the current rate of production, we will obtain full regional infratructure coverage within the next 3 years.
Trade flows remain strong, and high demand for Moroccon phosphorus has left us with strong currency accounts in both dollars and BRICs currencies. Our next shipment of metal imports will arrive next week which will enable expansion of the solar cable network. Our integrated rail and solar shipping network continues to operate effectively, covering the few remaining gaps in local production.
Finally, the minority discontent over capital controls and appropriaton which fuelled the Caribdus crisis has all but totally subsided, with the prospect of economic democracy afforded by transition enough to secure widespread support.
Agriculture
Our irrigation systems remain adequate to address rising temperatures, and our experimental agroecology strategy has proven fruitful. Companion planting of basic crops combined with the transformative introduction of magic bean groves in the southern salt marshes has enabled us to meet the basic nutritional needs of the entire population of the alliance. The people are excited for the prospect of dietary variety after the transition, but for now they are at least fed.
Housing
30% of the population are still living in temporary accomodation, however with current production of building supplies and improved local construction capacity we expect permanent housing to be available to all households within 2 years. The rollout of traditional North African passive cooling designs has reduced household energy demands by 60%.
Regional councils have been briefed on the fulfilment of residual housing needs and are prepared to carry out these works independently once the transition has been completed.
Infrastrucure
Wave-powered energy generators based on the Messianic prototypes have now been deployed at key strategic points across the sea, and the full integration of the Saharan mega-array into regional grids has finally removed the need for energy rationing across the mainland, even accounting for increased needs for cooling. Finally, geothermal installations in Greece and Sicily are meeting requirements for the central data centre, while generating enough surplus to meet 80% of the areas energy needs.
The machine learning model we have used to support resource allocation and labour coordination has now been distributed to the regional councils, with capacity building programmes on its use underway for those intending to utilise it after the transition. The central systems will be deactivated in two weeks, and our modelling show minimal chance of disruption.
Currency
The ongoing distribution of the Medinar by the central bank has been more than sufficient to ground strong internal demand after the transition, with asset transfers and basic service and commodity provision expected to control inflationary pressures with minimal intervention.
Story
The whole family relocated to this dusty camp on the Tunesian coast six months ago - the only open jobs out there are under the Mediterranean Transformation Plan. The agent at the unemployment agency made very clear that it is this or no more payments. No more payments meant to lose the house. It felt like a penal colony from day one.
Pitur spent this morning controlling the rivets on holding together the inlet pipes, now poking his magic bean couscous, desperately trying to find any appetite in his soul. Closing his eyes and imagining a ham sandwich, he takes a bite. Doesn’t help.
“I’m hot and tired. This place sucks. Can we go home now?” Seven year old Magnus never accepted any of this. He’s still too young for geopolitics to make any sense to him.
Pitur pulls himself together: “We can’t go home. We have to stay here for two more years to finish building this desalination plant, so they can have water. This is how we protect our home from all these people.” pointing at the dark skinned workers sitting at the other end of the Mensa talking loudly in Arab. “We have to keep them here, within the borders of the Mediterranean Alliance. There isn’t enough in Europe to go around, not anymore. And if they don’t have water here, they will come North.”
“But why can’t they just come? We have water…” Magnus remembers the lakes at home, the fresh and cool water.
“They are different. They will take everything and destroy the rest. We must secure the existence of our people and a future for white children - like you. Now let me finish this…” disgusted Pitur lifts another fork of couscous to his mouth and then sends his son away: “Go play with the other kids in the Magic Bean Groves.”
2051
When his alarm rings, Magnus still has a leftover flavor in his mouth. He was dreaming of magic bean groves of his childhood again. The innocent years playing in the coastal waters, the community, the many other kids. But right here right now, it’s 4:30 in the morning and he has to get ready for his drill. They don’t even let them use proper ammo during training anymore, just these funky electric simulation rifles with their fake sound and recoil. Army says bullets are too valuable for training.
It is still dark outside when he swaps his military uniform for his day job uniform - from dark green to light blue. As usual, they are understaffed. Carrying bodies barely able to move out of bed into the chair, making the bed while listening to the groaning and complaining, lifting them back in, checking their medical closet, filling out the timesheet. 17 minutes and 25 seconds for this one, almost a whole minute slower than his average. Repeat. Until he is called to onboard a new entry in the early afternoon.
Magnus has seen that face before. “Mr. Thorson?” The response is a stream of slurs and insults. His co-worker just gives him the side eye, “Tourette”. That fucker was an asshole already when he taught Swedish literature to Magnus highschool class. He vividly remembers the embarrassment, standing there in front of the whole class, Thorson humiliating him every single time he got called out for homework presentations. Not looking forward to wiping his ass every day going forward. His mind goes to pepper sprayed toilet paper for a second… but he needs to be careful not to lose the job. Without his income, his parents would have to move to a place like this.
He glimpses the last bit of dusk light on his way home. This existence is not worth saving. As many times before, his thoughts circle back to putting an end to it all by his own hands. The only thing keeping him alive is the escapist fantasy that Odyssey de Strada de Messina is: A cosy sim playing out in a solar punk future, full of beautiful young people going about their virtual lifes, harvesting food, building third spaces, making art and chatting. As he logs in, he hears his father calling him: “Magnus, where are my pills? I need to take my pills.”
Magnus turns his head and shouts vaguely in the direction of their living room “You already took them.” and returns to the Sim. In the last couple of sessions, he kept running into this girl… And indeed, she is online again.
“Hey Tindera! Good to see you, up for a game?”
“Hey, ciao bello, how are you doing?”
“I don’t know, my day was shit, I need a distraction.”
The chat is interrupted by another call from the living room: “Magnus where are my pills? I need to take my pills.” He had tried everything - not responding leads to even shorter cycles of repetition. Alzheimer is a bitch. So here we go again, he mutes his mike and shouts again: “You already took them!”
“Yeah, I’ve got this new idea for a planting pattern. Come over here, I can use some help, I’m trying to integrate coconuts into the Magic Bean Grove system here” - Tindera is using the game as a simulation space to test the micro climatic effects of different layouts for the expansion of their research grove on southern coast of Sicily.
Magnus moves his avatar over, and for a few blissful minutes, guided by the soft voice of the young woman he plants virtual mangrove stalks, agave seedling and occasional coconut palms in an intricate pattern on an imaginary beach. “You know, for me this game is like a vision of paradise. Nothing else in my life gives me joy like this. Especially with you.”
Tindera could just run the simulation by herself in a god-mode mod, but she prefers to do it in the regular game. The human element of the cultivation process is what she is most interested - “How do cultivation practices shape culture” will be the title of her thesis. “These ecosystems around magic bean groves are endlessly fascinating to me. They create an abundance, but it takes a lot of time to harvest and process. So life of the coastal population plays out in these groves.”
“You know I’ve been playing in one of those as a kid. My family was in Tunesia once…I’m still dreaming of those times”
Out of a spontaneous grace, Tindera just makes an offer, not thinking much about it: “You know, they are building a couple of new housing units not far from here. Why don’t you come over IRL?”
Magnus feels his heart drop. Come over in IRL. His imagination immediately turns erotic, just to be interrupted by another loop:
“Magnus where are my pills? I need to take my pills.”
He gets up and mumbles to himself: “I just can’t do this anymore.” Walks over to the living room almost in a trance. The stale air, that slightly sour smell of old age getting stronger as he approaches his dad. “I need to tell you something. I’m leaving. I’m going back. I met someone online. She lives in Sicily and I think she loves me.”
Pitur snaps out of his delirium for a few moments of clarity, activating his personality, the dominant patriarch he was in his best years now echoing through the empty shell left of him: “You’re going to that hellhole, to live with those people? Why? You can’t leave us. There’s nothing there for you. Stay here where it’s safe. Do your duty to your own people!”
And with that, Magnus makes his choice. Packing his stuff takes less than an hour, and he finds himself on a train early the next morning.
Tindera didn’t expect that. Didn’t the profile say he lives like 3000 km away? And now that guy is actually coming over? What the fuck. Anyway, the community around the grove is thriving and another pair of hands is always welcome. She compartmentalizes that little episode to prepare for the meeting with her supervisor instead. Wafaa is such a fascinating person, noone knows more about Magic Bean Groves than him. The ecosystem seems to follow him around, moving so gracefully during harvest… She catches herself drifting off and blushes - not supposed to think about your supervisor like that. After graduation though…
Evolution
Timeline
Timeline for AM group.pdf (92.9 KB)
2024
Capitalizing on anti-migrant sentiment throughout Europe and elsewhere, the far-right gain significant representation in governments throughout Europe. Marine Le Pen is elected as the first woman President of France. A Libyan-Sicilian artist screens her science fiction film in Messina, drawing huge crowds who are inspired by her vision of ‘Mediterranean futurism’.
2025
President Donald Trump travels to Paris as part of a migration reform summit that includes other newly elected anti-migrant leaders throughout Europe. A heatwave in central Europe leads to climate protests against EU leadership and far-right leaders who seek to overturn climate progress.
2026
In a rare political commentary, the Pope denounces climate inaction in the wake of cascading crop harvest failures in three of the world’s major breadbaskets. Amid flooding in south Asia and fears of famine amid droughts and food supply chain disruptions, the UN mobilizes significant resources to climate vulnerable communities. The crisis results in EU-imposed austerity measures to combat ‘climate inflation’, which disproportionately impact the economies of Eastern and Southern European countries. This does not deter the Sicilian mayor, as they inaugurate a construction of a cable ferry project that will link the island to the Italian mainland via Calabria. Meanwhile, North African nation-states on the Mediterranean, begin to initiate high-level strategic talks with the Sicilian Government, as climate migration forecasts project a looming crisis.
2027
The Sicilian government completes the cable ferry project, linking the island to Calabria, but the project is condemned as a waste of resources, as the local economy is stifled by EU austerity measures. The Sicilian government enters an informal regional cooperation to share resources and plan for climate migration. After a screening of her Mediterranean Futurism film, Amal is approached by government officials to elaborate on her vision for regional governance.
2028
Amid a cataclysmic drought in sub-Saharan Africa, EU member states coordinate to ratify the strictest migration policy in the organizations’ history. Illegal migration intensifies in Sicily and southern Europe, but the Sicilian government’s refusal to commit more resources to enforcement and statements by public officials signaling a need to welcome more refugees, illustrates a growing rift between Sicily and the EU. Amal’s film, is scree
2030
Disillusioned with EU austerity measures, an increasingly authoritarian anti-migrant Europe abetted by Italy, Sicily signs the Treaty of Bardo, serving as a founding member of the Alleanza Del Mediterraneao (AM).Citing the artist Amal’s Mediterranean Futurism film as inspiration, the member states which include Morocco, Andalucia, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Corsica, Mallorca, Crete and Greece. The President of the EU commission certifies Sicily’s secession from Europe, an agreement which includes a significant transfer of cash and expertise to the fledgling regional bloc as they set out to deal with the EU’s migrant problem by welcoming all climate refugees. In December, the first Assembly of the AM occurs in Tunisia, welcoming 30 councilors who represent specific regions rather than nation-states. Their first official acts are the unilateral expropriation of capital assets to the AM, the purchase of capital assets and building materials from the Arab and Sino Blocs, and the designation of Amal as the Cicero, a symbolic role to unify the nascent state.
2031
After months of comprehensive debate, the multi-phase Mediterranean Transformation Plan is ratified, which includes the foundation of a Mediterranean Central Bank, low-energy digital wallets for every citizen and a new currency called MeDinar. The AM initiates the mass mobilization of its citizens for construction projects which include rail network, desalination plants, solar farms, and wave power plants, assisted by EU-imported experts.
2032
Naval assets are refurbished as ferries for the transport of goods and citizens across the regional alliance borders.
2035
The Geothermal Power plant in Sicily opens. The undersea data centre transitions from diesel generators and grid power to geothermal. The North African Rail network has been finalized.
2040
The Sahara Solar Array is completed.
2041
The AM Council meets to commemorate the 10th year anniversary of Alliance in Museo of Bardo in Tunis. While Cicero Amal is delivering her remarks, which enumerate the progress the bloc has made toward realizing the Mediterranean Transformation Plan, a terrorist organization known as Charybdis initiates a coordinated attack on eight of the bloc’s undersea data centers using Scyla-class marine drones. The attack by the EU separatists, who were disillusioned by the expropriation of their wealth by the AM, results in a significant disruption as the targeted data centers provided crucial storage and services for the Central Mediterranean Bank. In what cultural commentators remark as the “summer of love”, AM citizens weather the significant logistical disruptions by sharing resources and adopting a spirit of collectivity and mutual care. Amal’s calls for ‘generosity’ result in a gift economy that sustains the AM through the worst period of its brief history. By the end of the summer, the AM has repaired the undersea cables and restored the banking ledgers backed up on magnetic tape beneath the Sahara Array vault. Charbydis members flee to the Baltic Bloc, in a bid to avoid extradition.
2045
Having realized their development and construction goals, The AM Council implements transitional policies toward devolution, as it prepares to transition from a Command Economy to something more agency-oriented.
2051
Cicero Amal inaugurates the bicentennial of the AM by announcing the completion of the Mediterranean Transformation Plan. Realization of full self-sufficiency (energy, food, housing, water, transport) in AM bloc regions.
- What is solar capacity for Saharan Array and what happens to excess?
- How do you build all this infrastructure?
- Is Europe wealthy enough for this cash transfer?
- How are we exporting electricity?
- How does the MedAlliance narrative disrupt state-based?
- How did the nation-state let this region go?
- Where is the Capitol?
- Why did some parts of the Mediterranean not join
- Why is this philosophically different from EU?
10.Why not including Middle East & LatAm regions?
11.How did they get to this pluralist setup?
12.Pluralism: co-existence or tolerance? - What made the Mediterranean Alliance attractive place to migrate?
- What is the cause of EU southbound migration (social, climactic)?
- What are the institutions? How did it come to be?
- What are the magic beans?
- What does the cable ferry do?
- How is the AM formed? What lead to it?
- Who is part of it?
- How are people living there, what does life look like for them? What does dating look like?
- Is there religion?
- How do people feed themselves? How do people meet their material, social, emotional needs?
- Who is no longer there?
In process future economic vision notes . . .
Notes
- Property rights etc largely stay the same for the 15 years BUT with warning that there will be significant shift after this
- Alliance becomes monopsony buyer in industry – sets prices and also governance terms (eg worker rights)
- Necessary expropriation of things like farmland, desalination sites, energy plants etc
- Mostly foreign capital flight and then expropriation of the remainder
- For remaining private owners of productive capital a 15 year transition deadline
- On death landed property returns to the community – no landed inheritance – land trust
- Community trust as a guaranteed buyer for shares in cooperative firms
- System of different community trusts (land, production etc)
- People can inherit productive capital but they must take up a meaningful role – strong unionised labour as a governance check to ensure this is actually productive
- All workers have a say in governance and a say in what happens to surplus
- 2 options for private owners after 15 years: can remain in private ownership but with massive regulation or sell into community
- No advertising
- Stringent environmental protections – go to jail immediately and all your assets are confiscated
- Depreciating currency but you can make surplus (but group decision over this)
- subsidiarity-oriented institutional structures to promote maximal agency
- monetary system managed to ensure continuous productive flows by removing sinks or congestion caused by accumulation.
